Predictive Score for the Development or Progression of Graves' Orbitopathy in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Graves' Hyperthyroidism | oneGRAVESvoice

welcome to oneGRAVESvoice

- a positively charged Graves' disease and thyroid eye disease community.
  • join today!
Scientific Articles

Predictive Score for the Development or Progression of Graves’ Orbitopathy in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Graves’ Hyperthyroidism

key information

source: European Journal of Endocrinology / European Federation of Endocrine Societies

year: 2018

authors: Wiersinga W, Žarković M, Bartalena L, Donati S, Perros P, Okosieme O, Morris D, Fichter N, Lareida J, von Arx G, Daumerie C, Burlacu MC, Kahaly G, Pitz S, Beleslin B, Ćirić J, Ayvaz G, Konuk O, Törüner FB, Salvi M, Covelli D, Curro N, Hegedüs L, Brix T

summary/abstract:

Objective:
To construct a predictive score for the development or progression of Graves’ orbitopathy (GO) in Graves’ hyperthyroidism (GH).

Design:
Prospective observational study in patients with newly diagnosed GH, treated with antithyroid drugs (ATD) for 18 months at ten participating centers from EUGOGO in 8 European countries.

Methods:
348 patients were included with untreated GH but without obvious GO. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to determine the best predictors. A predictive score (called PREDIGO) was constructed.

Results:
GO occurred in 15% (mild in 13% and moderate to severe in 2%), predominantly at 6–12 months after start of ATD. Independent baseline determinants for the development of GO were clinical activity score (assigned 5 points if score > 0), TSH-binding inhibitory immunoglobulins (2 points if TBII 2–10 U/L, 5 points if TBII > 10 U/L), duration of hyperthyroid symptoms (1 point if 1–4 months, 3 points if >4 months) and smoking (2 points if current smoker). Based on the odds ratio of each of these four determinants, a quantitative predictive score (called PREDIGO) was constructed ranging from 0 to 15 with higher scores denoting higher risk; positive and negative predictive values were 0.28 (95% CI 0.20–0.37) and 0.91 (95% CI 0.87–0.94) respectively.

Conclusions:
In patients without GO at diagnosis, 15% will develop GO (13% mild, 2% moderate to severe) during subsequent treatment with ATD for 18 months. A predictive score called PREDIGO composed of four baseline determinants was better in predicting those patients who will not develop obvious GO than who will.

organization: University of Amsterdam, Netherlands; University of Belgrade, Serbia; Ospedale di Circolo; University of Insubria, Italy; Royal Victoria Infirmary, UK; Cardiff University School of Medicine, UK; University Hospital of Wales, UK; Centre for Graves' Orbitopathy, Switzerland; Cliniques Universitaires Saint-Luc, Belgium; Johannes Gutenberg University Medical Center, Germany; Buergerhospital, Germany; University of Belgrade, Serbia; Gazi University, Turkey; University of Milan, Italy; Fondazione IRCCS Ca'Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Italy; University of Southern Denmark, Denmark

DOI: 10.1530/EJE-18-0039

Font Resize

To improve your experience on this site, we use cookies. This includes cookies essential for the basic functioning of our website, cookies for analytics purposes, and cookies enabling us to personalize site content. By clicking on 'Accept' or any content on this site, you agree that cookies can be placed. You may adjust your browser's cookie settings to suit your preferences.
More information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close